Surf Forecast - Western Australia

Perth

South Coast WA

Summary
Thursday
Strong rise of SW groundswell
Southwest coast: 6ft early rising 8-10ft sets late
Perth: 1-2ft rising 2ft+ sets
Light NE winds tending SE

Friday
Large SW groundswell
Southwest coast: 6-8ft with plus sets early
Perth: 2-3ft sets
ENE winds 10kt tending light

Saturday
Decreasing SW swell
Southwest coast: 6ft+ early easing 4-6ft through afternoon
Perth: 1-2ft.
ENE winds 10kt tending light

Sunday
Reinforcing SW swell
Southwest coast: 4-6ft+
Perth: 1-2ft
ENE winds tending light.

Monday
Decreasing SW swell
Southwest coast: 3-5ft
Perth: 1ft+
Calm early, tending light NW in afternoon

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Short Forecast
Good conditions arising with strong SW groundswell building in Thursday and combining with offshore winds into Friday.

Recap
A compact low moved over the interior of WA and a developing high pressure system formed across the southwest coast Tuesday. Monday had varied conditions through the day with shifting winds and rotating swell from the NW to SW. Surf decreased as the low made landfall and winds backed down immediately Tuesday.

Forecast Overview
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A high pressure rebuilt across the coast Tuesday, and we see calming wind conditions coupled with settled SW swell midweek. Swell faded fairly quick and Wednesday morning showed clean form but dropping 3ft conditions on open breaks.

The Indian Ocean has been undergoing a large swell generation from a storm system that passed through the low latitudes early to midweek. This large scale storm has created a run of long period SW groundswell through the end of the week for a chance of excellent to good surfing conditions.

The first of the extended swell pulses would pick up long period forerunners arriving Wednesday night and then continue to fill in throughout Thursday afternoon. This would fill in inconsistent sets Wednesday evening back up to head high and then fill in overhead range on sets Thursday. During that time, a weak brush of a cold front to our south will shift light variable wind Thursday. Look for a rising swell to build through the day Thursday and swell would peak late Thursday under the light wind conditions and well overhead sets.

Thursday shows good but Friday is also looking excellent on the forecast charts when the long period SW groundswell combines with offshore wind conditions. SW groundswell will be further enhanced as the winds turn NE Friday. The large swell holds up sets in the overhead range through the day, holding strongest and largest through the morning. Swell will gradually fade and then show more moderate easing head high conditions into Saturday as conditions hold clean.

Another overlapping but smaller long period swell would follow directly in its wake and push reinforcing round of waves Sunday. The swell will be much smaller than Thursday but looks to continue the extended run of head high to slightly overhead conditions through the weekend. Weather over the coast has chance to hold light winds as a weak pressure gradient shows across WA. Waves will slow down and decrease gradually into Monday morning, and by Monday afternoon winds may eventually return from the west based on early projections of a front.

Further Outlook
There is more storm activity in the Indian Ocean due early next week as a new cut off low potentially forms to our deep southwest Monday. This following storm can kick in another SW swell mix by midweek, although the front from this storm may finally break down our run of clean conditions. This is variable across forecast weather models as some suggest the front moves quickly east, while others show more onshore winds impacting the coast.

As the low approaches the southwest coast, rising new SW swell would begin to pick back up Tuesday and rise sets through the day. It is variable if NW winds forecasted Monday night would swing SW and increase texture as swell rises Tuesday OR if the winds shift quickly from the S to SE Tuesday.

By Wednesday next week, the next pulse of overhead conditions could potentially rebuild as conditions show more east direction in the windflow. Another good day of waves would occur midweek if the low builds to strength.

Even beyond that storm early next week, yet another possible larger SW swell is projected to form off another stronger low pressure storm system in its wake. This could pick up a larger swell around next Friday 30 May. Check back for a follow up on the probability of next week’s swell.