Surf Forecast - Victoria

East Coast VIC

Surf Coast VIC

Surf Forecast updated 4.00pm Wednesday, 22 May 2013. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast
Thursday
SW groundswell up to 3 - 4ft exposed breaks, tending 1 - 2ft across Surf Coast. WIND: ESE 10 - 15 knots, easing later.

Friday
Leftover SW swell, 2 - 3ft exposed breaks, tending to a small 1ft or so across Surf Coast. WIND: Light WNW 5 - 10 knots shifting WSW 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Long period SW groundswell fills in throughout the day. Initially inconsistent 4 – 6ft exposed beaches, rising to 6 - 8ft+ during the day. Reaching 4 – 6ft across the Surf Coast during the afternoon. WIND: WNW 10 to 20 knots tending WSW during the afternoon.

Sunday
Long period SW groundswell 8ft+ exposed beaches, gradually easing later. Grading to 5 – 8ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: WNW to WSW 10 to 20 knots.

Monday
SW groundswell 6 - 8ft exposed beaches, easing during the afternoon. Sets to 4 – 5ft across the Surf Coast early, fading during the day. WIND: Early light WNW tending light and variable during the afternoon.

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Recap
Wednesday marked the arrival of another small to mid range pulse of SW groundswell maintaining three foot plus surf across the exposed beaches and smaller one to two foot waves across the Surf Coast.

Forecast Overview
Wednesday’s slow rise in SW groundswell followed the development of a deep, compact low pressure system that developed over the far south-eastern Indian Ocean last weekend. The system is projected to maintain peak intensity throughout Saturday before weakening out along the fringes of Western Australian longitudes by Sunday. This should peak in the three to four foot range across the exposed beaches on Thursday before fading to lower levels by Friday – still up to two to three feet across the exposed breaks, but fading during the day.

Friday, however, marks an interim low point in wave energy preceding the arrival of a significant, long distance SW groundswell across Victorian this weekend. The source is a very large, complex area of low pressure system that developed over the southern Indian Ocean; originating deep beneath Africa last Friday as two discrete low pressure centres before evolving into a vast low pressure complex occupying the south-central Indian Ocean on Monday and Tuesday;


Source: BOM. A deep extratropical low moving across our long range swell window sets up a large SW groundswell for the region this weekend.

The storm generated a vast belt of WSW gales spanning the 40S to 50S latitudinal bands of the southern Indian Ocean on Monday and Tuesday before gradually weakening as it migrated slowly east throughout Wednesday. Although associated wind speeds are not overly strong (mostly 30 to 40 knots), the sheer dimensions of the fetch give rise to a vast wave field exhibiting maximum heights of 30 to 40 feet. The leading edge of a subsequent, long period SSW groundswell makes landfall across the West Coast on Thursday before spreading out beneath the continent to affect Victorian coasts his weekend.

This is now expected to peak in the eight foot plus range across the exposed beaches on Sunday, grading significantly bigger across the south-west of the state. The Surf Coast will be the primary beneficiary; in all likelihood receiving long lined four to six foot sets throughout Saturday ahead of a peak in the five to eight foot range on Sunday.

Local winds are looking favourable for the Surf Coast. A large high pressure system migrating across the south-east of the continent sets up a lighter westerly flow across the state; probably still WNW to W/SW on both days.

A smaller frontal system trailing the storm moves through our swell window this weekend, adding a reinforcing pulse of SW swell into the mix that should see plenty of surf across the region early to mid next week. Expect solid four to five foot wave across the Surf Coast on Monday, gradually fading throughout the day. There’s still likely to be waves around the three foot mark on Tuesday and larger four to six foot waves across the exposed beaches. Both days are likely to coincide with light northerly winds following the passage of a large high pressure system into the Tasman Sea.

Long Range
Another intense low pressure system forecast to develop deep beneath Tasmania on Sunday holds further potential for a SSW groundswell into the middle of next week. This holds potential for mid to large surf across the exposed beaches on Tuesday/ Wednesday and good sized waves across the Surf Coast. Beyond that, longer range guidance picks up a new frontal system moving into our swell window on Wednesday, hinting at a new SW pulse around Thursday 30 May, but this will become clearer later in the week.