Surf Forecast - Sydney to South Coast New South Wales

Sydney

South Coast NSW

Surf Forecast updated 12.00pm Wednesday, 22 May 2013. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast
Thursday
Choppy onshore conditions. Residual SSE swell 2ft, superseded by new ESE windswell building to a windblown 2 – 3ft during the afternoon. WIND: Light SW 5 - 10 knots at dawn tending SE early morning and increasing to 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Friday
Choppy SE windswell up to 3 – 4ft exposed coasts. WIND: SSE 15 to 20 knots, tending SSW in the afternoon.

Saturday
ESE windswell. Semi clean 2 - 3ft+ most exposed coasts, inconsistent in the upper range and easing during the day. WIND: Early SSW winds 5-15 knots tending lighter during the afternoon.

Sunday
New mid period S swell around 2ft across south facing beaches early, rising to 2 - 3ft during the morning and a stronger 3 – 4ft into the afternoon. Grading to 2 - 3ft open beaches. WIND: Early WSW 5 to 15 knots tending light S later.

Monday
S swell 2 - 3ft+ south facing beaches, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: WSW 5 to 10 knots, tending SSE into the afternoon.

For in-depth analysis read the Detailed Surf Forecast

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Recap
The tail end of this week’s SSE swell continued to produce clean two to three foot waves across the region on Tuesday. The tail end of this episode was still hovering around the two foot plus mark on Wednesday morning under light westerly winds – probably marking the final day of clean waves ahead of a rapid deteriorating in conditions over the next 48 hours.

Forecast Overview
There have been some notable developments to the short term forecast since Monday’s update. An upper level low traversing the eastern interior is still on course to induce an East Coast low offshore on Thursday. The low combines with a firm ridge extending off a high pressure system over the Great Australian Bight to set up a strengthening ESE fetch within close range of the NSW coast on Thursday and Friday;


Source: BOM. Source: BOM. A relatively weak East Coast Low developing off the northern NSW coast sets up a rising trend in lumy, onshore SE windswell into the end of the week.

However, recent model runs now place the developing low somewhere off the northern NSW coast on Thursday – a more northern locations that will effectively dilute the impact of the low on the southern half of the NSW coast. Having said that, there is still some notable divergence among key models regarding the strength and duration of the E to SE fetch developing across the low’s lower western flank. GFS downplays the strength of the fetch, hinting at a most increase in wind-affected SE windswell, not exceeding three to four feet at it’s peak on Friday. Alternatively, there is a possibility the low will sustain ESE gales off the Mid North Coast throughout Friday as the low briefly hovers offshore. This hints at a sustained run of ESE swell in the three to four foot range on Saturday, so check Friday’s update for clearer guidance on the low’s development.


Source: BOM: Model divergence lends some uncertainty to the outlook. The BOM's ACCESS model suggests the low will maintain near gale force ESE winds off the Mid North Coast throughout Friday - hinting at larger than projected surf across the region on Saturday.

However the low develops, there’s little doubt locations further north should see significantly larger surf– up to a solid four to six feet across Mid North Coast locations throughout Friday, but also be heavily affected by strong onshore SE winds throughout the day.

The low is widely projected to steadily weaken as it drifts away to the east this weekend. This flows through to an easing trend in ESE swell along with a relaxation of the ridge lying across the coast, causing winds to ease in strength turn SSW on Saturday and Sunday.

As the ESE swell begins to peter out on Sunday it overlaps with a new, rising trend in mid period S swell, gradually filling in throughout the day. This follows the passage of a large low pressure complex across our south swell window and an associated succession of cold fronts moving clear of Tasmania on Friday night. The fronts combine with the firming high pressure ridge to set up a strong SW fetch across the western Tasman Sea, extending out of eastern Bass Strait and up the Far South Coast on Saturday;

This should see a reasonably strong S pulse setting in during Sunday; quite possibly reaching three to four feet during the afternoon and holding good size throughout Monday. At the same time an additional, underlying component of longer period S swell is also expected to join in the mix on Monday. This energy arises from a broad belt of WSW gales developing below the 40S parallel as on Saturday, following the passage of a deep Southern Ocean Low beneath the Tasman Sea. The strong westerly bias in wind direction is likely to keep a lid on size associated with this system; aiming the bulk of swell at NZ and Fiji while only sending two to three feet of southerly spread into south facing beaches.

Long Range
However, a second, more intense extratropical low tracking deep beneath Tasmania on Sunday holds good potential for a second pulse of long interval S groundswell on Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest model runs pick up a deep belt of WSW gales setting up well south of Tasmania, facilitating rapid wave growth over the top of the pre-existing sea state. This hints at a strong S groundswell rising to three to four feet or more during Tuesday, holding good size on Wednesday. For the time being model divergence lends considerable uncertainty to the timing and size of this episode, so check back on Friday for clearer guidance.

During Tuesday and Wednesday we’re also likely to see a high pressure system moving out into the Tasman Sea, resulting in lighter winds across the NSW coast for most of the week along with an easing trend in S swell from Wednesday 29 May through to the weekend beginning Saturday 1 June.

If you’ve got any questions or feedback drop me a line at benmac4cast@gmail.com