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Mid Coast
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Surf Forecast updated 12.30pm Monday, 17 June 2013. By Ben Macartney.
Short Forecast
Tuesday
SSE swell 3 – 4ft+ most exposed beaches from Port Macquarie south, grading smaller across the North Coast. WIND: Early WSW 15 to 20 knots tending SSW 20 to 25 knots during the morning.
Wednesday
SSE swell 4 – 5ft from Port Macquarie south, grading a foot or two smaller across the North Coast. WIND: Early SW 15 to 20 knots tending SSW during the morning.
Thursday
SSE swell 3 – 4ft most exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early inshore SW 5 – 15 knots tending SSW during the morning, then S 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Friday
Good conditions early. SE swell up to 3 - 4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early WSW tending SSW to S 10 to 15 knots.
Saturday
SE swell 2 – 3ft+ exposed beaches, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: WSW 10 to 15 knots tending SSW during the afternoon.
For in-depth analysis read the
Detailed Surf Forecast
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Recap
A steep rise in S swell set in across the NSW coast on Saturday; starting out around three to five feet early before pushing up to a stronger four to six mid morning and odd larger six foot plus set materialising at south facing breaks throughout the day. The swell continued to run at similarly strong levels on Sunday, sustained by a slow moving East Coast Low over the southern Tasman Sea. A new pulse of SSE swell registered on the Sydney buoy at peak intervals of 13 seconds overnight, maintaining set waves around the five to six foot mark across south facing stretches on Monday morning.
Forecast Overview
The ECL remains the focus of the short term outlook as it continues to deliver series of solid SSE pulses to the NSW coast over the next few days. Although the low is now entering the final stages in its evolution, the system continued to generate a broad swathe of south-easterly gales across the southern Tasman Sea throughout Sunday, giving rise to another pulse of mid period SSE swell over the next 48 hours.
This should see wave heights fluctuating between four and six feet in the upper range across exposed beaches on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a slight south-easterly shift in swell direction facilitating better penetration into east facing stretches. It will be worth getting in early on both days to capitalise on early inshore west to south-westerlies. Winds are set to swing to the south and strengthen early Tuesday as an emerging ridge firms up against the near stationary low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea. Strong SSW winds should persist early Wednesday as the high drifts slow across Tasmania.
Source: BOM. The slow moving low pressure complex persists as the primary synoptic feature affecting the East Coast this week.
The tail end of this episode is long enough to extend a slow easing trend in wave heights into the end of the week; producing rideable surf in the three to four foot range on Thursday, grading to two to three by Friday. Although the SSW wind regime remains in place all week, the eastward movement of the high pressure system into the south-west Tasman will see much lighter wind speeds on both days.
The low continued to generate SSE gales across the south-east Tasman as it drifts across New Zealand during the week. The system combines with a second, Southern Ocean low traversing deep beneath the Tasman to set up a long southerly fetch just west of NZ longitudes on Wednesday and Thursday. Although this holds potential for another SSE pulse over the weekend, the system is likely to sit a little too far offshore to have a major impact. Further, there’s still obvious divergence among the key models lending considerable uncertainty to the timing and size of any new swell, so check Wednesday’s update for more on this.
Source BOM. As the low pressure system moves further offshore it may briefly reintensify over NZ, setting up one final pulse of SSE swell this weekend.
Long Range
There’s now an additional synoptic feature looming as a potential swell source for the Eastern Seaboard – possibly as early as Sunday but otherwise early next week. Several key computer models are picking up a new East Coast Low developing off the NSW coast in one form or another, following the passage of an upper level low across the eastern interior later this week.
At this early stage computer modelling is heavily divergent; one picking up a surface low forming offshore as early as Saturday and intensifying dramatically overnight, setting up a steep increase in E or SE swell by Sunday;
Source: BOM. The slow moving low pressure complex persists as the primary synoptic feature affecting the East Coast this week.
Alternatively, latest US model runs pick up slow development of the low within close range of the North Coast on Sunday, resulting in a large, albeit stormy increase in E swell across Sydney and the South Coast by Monday morning. Keep in mind these two scenarios are offset by other projections capturing very modest development of the low over the southern Tasman early to mid next week – so at this stage it’s still too early in the piece to call with any certainty.
If you’ve got any questions or feedback drop me a line at benmac4cast@gmail.com
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